NEW DELHI/TORONTO: Prime Minister Narendra Modi was quick to congratulate Liberal Party leader Mark Carney on his victory in Canada’s elections on Tuesday and offer to strengthen the bilateral partnership, setting the stage for a reset of the relationship that hit an all-time low under former prime minister Justin Trudeau.
India-Canada relations suffered after Trudeau went public in September 2023 with allegations that Indian government agents were linked to the killing of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a charge dismissed by New Delhi as “absurd”.
Under the Trudeau government, Ottawa and New Delhi repeatedly clashed on the Khalistan issue, downgraded diplomatic ties and expelled each other’s diplomats. India also accused Canada of providing safe haven to extremist elements.
As provisional results projected a victory for the Liberal Party, albeit marginally short of a majority, Modi reached out to Carney on social media. “Congratulations @MarkJCarney on your election as the Prime Minister of Canada and to the Liberal Party on their victory,” he said.
“India and Canada are bound by shared democratic values, a steadfast commitment to the rule of law, and vibrant people-to-people ties. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our partnership and unlock greater opportunities for our people,” Modi said in a post markedly different from most exchanges between the leadership of the two sides in recent years.
Bilateral ties appear to be moving in a “positive direction”, especially after Trudeau’s exit as prime minister in March and the victory of Carney, who has spoken in recent days about rebuilding relations with India, people familiar with the matter said on condition of anonymity. “Trudeau was the main stumbling block to improving relations,” one of the people said.
Two senior Liberal Party leaders, who have served in Cabinet positions, have assured those engaged in the India-Canada trade corridor that there will be a “major reset” of ties under Carney as he has “many friends” in New Delhi and in Modi’s government.
A second person said, “The changed global circumstances, especially Canada’s trade war with the US and its search for new markets and opportunities outside North America, augur well for a reset in India-Canada relations. Canada is also looking for political support in the context of the Trump administration’s policies.”
Hours before Canada’s election, US President Donald Trump repeated his threat to annex Canada and make it the 51st state of the US, a move denounced by Carney and opposition Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, who was courted by the Indian side as it initially appeared he would sweep the polls. Poilievre lost his constituency while the Conservatives appeared set to win 144 seats in the 343-member House of Commons.
The Indian side is also drawing comfort from the electoral losses of New Democratic Party (NDP) chief Jagmeet Singh, a trenchant critic of the Indian government. Not only did Singh lose his constituency, the NDP appears set to lose its national party status as it is unlikely to win the mandatory 12 seats. Singh played a key role in propping up Trudeau’s minority government after the 2021 election.
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In the run-up to the election, Carney signalled his willingness to reset the relationship with New Delhi. On Saturday, as the election campaign neared it close, he described the relationship with India as “incredibly important”.
Carney didn’t directly address the festering matter of Nijjar’s murder, but suggested differences that led to the cratering of ties can be resolved. “There are strains on that relationship that we didn’t cause, to be clear, but there is a path forward to address those with mutual respect and to build out,” he said.
A looming trade war over Trump’s tariffs could be a powerful push for Carney to opt for the pragmatic path of rebuilding relations with the world’s fifth largest economy. “It’s one of the opportunities I would look to pursue if I were selected by Canadians,” he said.
It wasn’t an isolated remark, as on March 4, during the campaign for leadership of the Liberal Party, he told reporters in Calgary: “What Canada will be looking to do is to diversify our trading relationships with like-minded countries and there are opportunities to rebuild the relationship with India.”
A possible opportunity for the reset would be an invitation for Modi to attend the outreach sessions of the G7 Summit to be hosted by Canada in Kananaskis resort during June 15-17. Such an invitation would not be just a confidence-building measure but also allow for the first meeting between Carney and Modi, who has been invited to outreach sessions of recent G7 Summits.
Another confidence-building measure will be the appointment of new high commissioners. India pulled out its envoy and five other diplomats last October, when they were declared “persons of interest” in the investigation into Nijjar’s killing. HT first reported on March 20 that India’s ambassador to Spain, Dinesh K Patnaik, has emerged as a front-runner for the position in Ottawa, while Christopher Cooter, who was till recently Canada’s envoy to South Africa, has been tipped for the position in New Delhi.
Ajay Bisaria, who served as India’s envoy to Ottawa during 2020-2022, said: “Carney has a firm mandate to reorder Canadian global priorities at a time when he faces a volatile US and a dangerous China. This also marks an inflection point for India-Canada ties since Carney has the opportunity to fix what Trudeau wantonly broke.”
However, the people said both sides will have to prepare for potentially damaging revelations as the criminal case over Nijjar’s killing gets underway in Canada. In this context, they pointed to the resumption of behind-the-scenes contacts between Indian and Canadian security agencies since late last year.
In January, a team from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) met Indian law enforcement officials during a visit to New Delhi, while Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) chief Daniel Rogers was among security officials from some 20 countries who attended a security conclave hosted by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval in New Delhi on March 16.
Bisaria listed potential outcomes for the near future: “Carney needs to signal he is willing to engage with India to move forward pragmatically, rebuild trust, bolster economic ties, engage on security issues and reboot the stalled trade agreement.”