Hours after a podcast featuring Raj Thackeray went viral online, the official X handle of the Shiv Sena (UBT) posted a video in which his cousin Uddhav Thackeray said he is willing to set aside minor disputes in the interests of Maharashtra. In a split-screen frame, the video shows Raj shaking hands with Uddhav outside the Thackeray residence, Matoshree.
The video represents the mood in both Uddhav’s Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). Summed up, it is one of hope and scepticism.
The cousins – who were both once key leaders of the Shiv Sena – have been bitter rivals for three decades. If they do reunite politically, it could mark another upheaval in Maharashtra politics, a state already roiled and fractured by the splits in both the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
This is certainly the most serious talk of political reconciliation since the two cousins parted ways, when Raj left the Sena to launch his MNS, in 2005-06.
The backdrop of these signals tells a significant story. For days now, the state has seen vociferous debate over the Mahayuti government’s decision to make Hindi compulsory in all primary schools in Maharashtra. Opposition parties including the MNS have opposed the move. Against this backdrop, the Thackeray cousins are likely to highlight the issue of Marathi pride in the run-up to the civic polls, due later this year.
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These polls, especially in Mumbai, could hold the key to the Thackerays’ political survival. The BJP is determined to win the Mumbai civic body, which has been a source of great strength to the Shiv Sena for decades. Deputy chief minister Eknath Shinde, who now heads the Shiv Sena, has been working to destroy the Sena (UBT) in Mumbai, admitting more than 50 former corporators from the Thackeray faction into his party so far.
A Sena (UBT)-MNS alliance could change the game. The sheer visual and emotional appeal of the two cousins campaigning together could alone sway the Marathi voter and impact the civic polls, not just in Mumbai but across the vast and also-wealthy Mumbai Metropolitan Region, as well as in former strongholds such as Nashik and Pune.
It could also mean a triangular election in Maharashtra, since the Sena (UBT) and MNS are both unlikely to align with the opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance. With the vote split so many ways, the BJP-led Mahayuti could find itself in trickier waters than it had anticipated.
A big ask
Several leaders from both parties, however, admit that any such a reunion is easier said than done. There are several hurdles to overcome – and there is the question of how long such a rearrangement could hold, without fraying or breaking apart again.
The fundamental issue – that of the trust deficit between the two men – remains a looming one.
“Twice in the past we attempted to forge an alliance with Uddhav Thackeray’s party, once in 2014 and then in 2017. On both occasions, he showed a willingness at first but later just stopped responding,” said MNS leader Sandip Desphande. “Joining hands should also be unconditional. You can’t tell us who we can invite into our home and who we can’t.”
A senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader pointed to perhaps the biggest practical hurdle: “Who will be the leader,” he asked. “Will Raj accept Uddhav’s leadership, and vice-versa?”
It is worth noting, said political analyst Padmabhushan Deshpande, that Raj is also in talks with the BJP and Shinde, to contest the upcoming civic polls as an alliance.
“There is also the issue of the MVA, of which the Shiv Sena (UBT) is currently a part. Will Uddhav leave MVA or will Raj join it? It is unlikely that the two cousins would together be part of the MVA. But in case of a triangular election, will the two cousins win the Mumbai civic polls only on the basis of the Marathi vote?” Deshpande added.
Water under the bridge?
How deep does the trust deficit go?
“Ahead of the 2017 civic polls, Raj did offer to join hands with Uddhav. But Uddhav was in power with the BJP in the state, and he saw the civic polls as an opportunity to finish off Raj’s party. He chose to go it alone. The Shiv Sena won only 84 seats, 20 short of a majority. The BJP won 82. Uddhav won power with the help of the BJP and later poached six of the MNS’s seven winners too. Since then, Raj has trusted Uddhav even less,” said a former MNS legislator.
A Sena (UBT) MP, for his part, pointed out that Shinde had dinner with Raj at the latter’s residence three days ago. “How can we trust his words in a podcast probably recorded a day or two after this dinner?” he said.
The acrimony between the cousins has turned personal too, on occasion.
Ahead of the 2017 civic polls, Raj in a public rally alleged that Shiv Sena founder and chief Bal Thackeray, Uddhav’s father, was unhappy in his final days. “I went to meet him once and saw he was being given oily batata wadas. I went home and got his favourite food prepared for him,” he had said then.
More recently, in last year’s Assembly polls, Raj had expected Uddhav to avoid fielding a candidate opposite his son Amit Thackeray, in the Mahim constituency. After all, when Uddhav’s son Aaditya Thackeray had contested for the first time, in 2019, Raj had not fielded a candidate opposite him. Uddhav’s Sena (UBT), however, did appoint a candidate in Mahim, Mahesh Sawant. In the triangular contest, Sawant won. The Shiv Sena candidate came in second. Raj’s son Amit came in a poor third.
“We don’t think Raj has forgiven his cousin for the humiliating defeat of his son. So, everything is being taken with a pinch of salt,” said the Sena (UBT) MP.
“At the end of the day, anything is possible in politics,” he added, “but the two cousins will have to get rid of a lot of baggage if they really plan to go it together.”