On November 13, by-polls will be held for nine Uttar Pradesh assembly seats months after the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s poor Lok Sabha poll performance in the state. The BJP tally fell from 62 to 33. It lost erstwhile strongholds such as Faizabad (Ayodhya) despite the Ram Temple’s consecration in the run-up to the polls. The Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) emerged as the single largest party with 37 out of 80 seats.
BJP’s underwhelming Lok Sabha performance in Uttar Pradesh triggered rumblings within the party’s state unit. A string of high-profile meetings in Delhi and Lucknow and political posturing triggered fevered speculation. Deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, known as a detractor of chief minister Yogi Adityanath, set off speculation in July after he met with BJP chief JP Nadda. He underlined no one is bigger than the organisation in what was seen as a jab at Adityanath. The BJP dismissed any speculation of infighting and projected a united face.
People aware of the matter said Adityanath managed to turn the tables on his detractors with the backing of the BJP’s ideological fount Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS).
Changes, if at all, in Uttar Pradesh are likely to be affected along with a reshuffle in the central government and the BJP after the appointment of a new party chief. The status quo was expected to continue if the BJP-led coalition wins the Maharashtra assembly polls as it will consolidate Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s position after the setback in general elections.
The BJP this summer fell short of the halfway mark of 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha for the first time since 2014, making it dependent on allies. The BJP’s unexpected victory in the Haryana assembly polls was also a major boost to the party.
In Uttar Pradesh, the results of the by-polls are unlikely to make much difference as the BJP-led government has a comfortable majority of 283 seats in the 403-member House. The SP and its allies have just 107 seats.
In 2022, SP won four of the nine seats, where the by-polls are being held, BJP three, Nishad Party, and RLD one each. If SP succeeds in retaining its 2022 tally, it will be alarming for the BJP and signal continuing disenchantment. The SP leaders have been cautioning their cadres about the misuse of the administration warning them they were not contesting elections against the BJP alone.
It is also too early to presume the outcome of the by-polls will have any bearing on the 2027 assembly polls or Adityanath’s political future after the rumblings within the party following the BJP’s poor show in the Lok Sabha elections.
The test
The by-elections will, however, be a test of Adityanath’s brand of politics, reflected in his controversial slogan, “Batoge to Katoge (divide and get chopped)”. Adityanath’s prestige will be at stake too and he will aim to win a majority of the nine seats.
Former chief minister Akhilesh Yadav’s “PDA formula” or social coalition of Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits, and minorities, which helped the SP to emerge as the single largest party in Lok Sabha polls in the state, will be tested again. He hopes to sustain the momentum of the Lok Sabha elections until the 2027 assembly elections and retain the status as a strong opposition party.
The SP has fielded Yadav family members on six of the nine seats even as it has faced criticism over dynastic politics. In Karhal, the BJP has nominated Anujesh Yadav, son-in-law of SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav’s apolitical brother, Abhay Ram. The Yadav family is unitedly backing Tej Pratap Yadav, grandson of SP founder’s brother, Ratan Singh, and son-in-law of former Bihar chief minister Lalu Yadav, in Karhal. The BJP plans to deploy Aparna Yadav, the second daughter-in-law of SP chief for campaigning.
Political experts doubt whether the BJP can challenge SP’s sway in Karhal, a seat it never lost since the mid-1980s. On the remaining eight seats, it is expected to be a tight contest.
“Batoge to Katoge” Vs “Judoge to Jeetoge”
Aimed at uniting the Hindus, the RSS has adopted the controversial slogan, “Batoge to Katoge” even as it has faced criticism for lack of civility. The RSS has been alarmed over the division in the Hindu vote bank in the 2024 national polls, especially in Uttar Pradesh despite the combined strength of Modi and Adityanath.
Former Jammu & Kashmir governor Satya Pal Malik even credited Akhilesh Yadav for stopping Modi’s juggernaut in Uttar Pradesh, which derailed the BJP’s ambition of forming a majority government. The “PDA strategy” is seen to have played a key role in this as it was not a mere slogan but also translated into ticket distribution. The SP is countering “Batoge to Katoge” with “Judoge to Jeetoge (unite and win).”
The BJP has fielded four OBCs, two Brahmin and one Dalit and Rajput to counter the “PDA strategy”. Its ally Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) has filed the ninth candidate, who is also an OBC.
The SP has given four tickets to Muslims, including two women, three to OBCs, and two to Dalits including one from a general seat of Ghaziabad. The SP has fielded five women candidates with Lok Sabha member Dimple Yadav among the star campaigners.
The “Batoge to Katoge” slogan will be tested in Phoolpur Mirzapur, Sisamau, Kundarki, and Meerapur assembly constituencies where SP has fielded Muslim candidates.
Kartika Purnima
RLD chief Jayant Chaudhury and the state government demanded a deferment of voting to November 18 as five of the nine constituencies are in western Uttar Pradesh and Braj region. There have been fears of a drop in Hindu turnout as people generally people visit camps on the Ganga two days before Kartika Purnima, which falls on November 15. This may impact polling in at least three of the constituencies—Muslim-dominated Meerapur, Khair, and Ghaziabad. The campaign was likely to pick up at the end of the festival season.
Politically redundant
The by-polls will be another major challenge for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati, who has almost become redundant in state politics since winning just one of the 403 seats in the assembly in 2022. BSP could not even win a single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha. The BSP is seen more as a spoilsport than a serious contender in the direct fight between BJP and SP.