NEW DELHI: The BJP would have to win the West Bengal assembly elections with absolute majority if it has to wrest power from chief minister Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC). Otherwise, it might have to sit in the opposition even if it emerges as the single largest party in case the ongoing election throws a hung assembly.
There are three scenarios in West Bengal. Either the TMC or the BJP wins the election by absolute majority or there is a hung assembly.
Government formation would be smooth if either of the two parties crosses the magic number of 147 in the 294-member assembly. The TMC would not have much problem in forming government if it becomes the single-largest party in a hung assembly.
In case of a hung assembly, the TMC is far better-placed than the BJP. Mamata may get the support of the Congress and Left parties. Congress Lok Sabha MP and state president Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has already indicated to this effect.
“Politics is the art of the possible,” Chowdhury said on April 7, quoting the famous German leader of the 19th century Bismarck, when asked whether the Congress would support Mamata if her party fell short of a majority in the assembly elections.
However, the BJP is not in the same advantageous position as the TMC as far as forging a post-poll alliance in West Bengal. Neither the Congress nor the Left parties would in most likelihood come forward to extend support to the BJP.
The situation in West Bengal would be akin to the scenario that had emerged after the 2018 Karnataka assembly election results were announced. The elections, which were held on 222 seats, threw a hung assembly.
At 104, the BJP won the largest number of seats, followed by the Congress (78) and the JD(S) 37.
Though the governor invited BS Yediyurappa to form government, he failed to prove majority on the floor of the house as neither the Congress nor the JD(S) pledged support to it.
Later, HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) formed the government with the support of the Congress.
A similar scenario had emerged at the national level in the 1996 Lok Sabha elections. In a hung Parliament, the BJP was the single-largest party by bagging 161 seats while the Congress followed by winning 140 seats.
Atal Bijhari Vajpayee of the BJP did form the government. However, failing to get majority support, he resigned before facing the floor test.
The BJP in West Bengal may face a similar problem if it fails to win a majority.
Starting from scratch, the party has slowly succeeded in emerging as the main opposition in the state by replacing both the CPI(M) and the Congress which had ruled the state till Mamata’s TMC defeated the Left in 2011 and retained power in 2016.
In the 2016 West Bengal assembly election, the BJP had won just three seats while the TMC was victorious on 211. The ruling Left and the Congress, which had fought as alliance partners then too, bagged 76 seats. The Congress won 44 seats, CPI(M) 26, RSP 3, Forward Block 2 and the CPI 1 seat.
The BJP drastically improved its tally in the 2019 parliamentary elections. Of the total 42 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP won 18 while the TMC 22 and the Congress bagged the remaining 2.
If the 2019 Lok Sabha election results are translated into assembly segments, the BJP led in 121 of the 294 assembly segments while the TMC in 164 and the Congress in 9 segments.
In 2014, the TMC had won a whopping 34 seats while the BJP and Left Front had managed to secure only 2 seats each. The Congress had won 4 seats.
The BJP has come a long way since 2014. Its hopes of forming a government may fructify if it wins an absolute majority However, a hung assembly may put paid to its dreams of coming to power in the eastern state for the first time.